Andrew - thank you for writing this book and everything you do. As a PhD candidate researching cognitive biases and rational decision making (in the vein of Daniel Kahneman), I can't help but notice that leaders and important voices in all fields in the modern day do not exercise enough humility in their judgement. You are one of the rare exceptions, and that has been clear for many years now. Please don't stop doing what you're doing!
This lands directly on my biggest edge and my biggest weakness.
My errors don’t come from lack of judgment. They come from demanding certainty too early. From wanting the present to announce itself as right or wrong before it possibly can.
The past looks obvious only because uncertainty has been edited out of it. In real time, we are always acting with partial information, incomplete maps, and nervous systems that crave resolution.
The work, for me, is not better prediction. It’s staying regulated inside ambiguity long enough for judgment to mature, without rushing to interfere, fix, or force clarity that doesn’t yet exist.
Knowing when judgment applies, and when it doesn’t, may be the real discipline.
Just finished 1929. As with TBTF, it was a great read and a wonderful recount of an important time in history. Your storytelling and research weaved invaluable insights and your synopsis above goes even further in coming to grips with how we can so often repeat the same mistakes due to lack of humility and or judgement. As always your inputs are thoroughly thought provoking.
That’s the concept of presentism: judging people in the past using today’s moral standards, knowledge, and assumptions—rather than what was knowable and normal in their own time. A good historian should be empathetic about context, but still firm that context explains actions; it doesn’t automatically excuse them.
For all we know, making a human being sit at a desk for eight hours a day may someday be viewed as inhumane. Yet my employer bought me a cutting-edge standing desk in 2017. A future historian shouldn’t cast my employer as evil if society later decides desk work is grossly unhealthy for the human body
—because the key question is what people reasonably knew and what options existed at the time.
See Division of Market Regulation, Securities & Exchange Commission, The October 1987 Market Break (Feb. 1988) or C. Kindleberger & R. McCauley, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crisis (8th ed, 2023-34). Leverage, leverage, leverage. This story has been told b/4, the only ? today is when & how bad.
The humility component really resonated. I’ve always been cautious of too much certainty...especially when hindsight starts to masquerade as clarity. Congrats on the Book!
This resonates deeply. One thing your piece surfaces — almost implicitly — is that judgment is not just a cognitive act, but a situated one: exercised under uncertainty, without resolution, and often before moral consensus exists.
What struck me is how much of our modern discourse assumes judgment should converge — quickly, decisively, cleanly — when in reality, its value often lies in its distribution: where people diverge, hesitate, or disagree in real time, before outcomes are known.
History looks obvious only in hindsight. But from the inside, judgment navigates terrain rather than landing on a point. Flattening that terrain into certainty — or rewarding speed over reflection — risks losing the very signal judgment provides.
Appreciated this reminder that humility isn’t a weakness of judgment, but one of its defining features.
You are so right. It is a shame that too few people equate confidence and exuberance with an understanding of what is going on. I am going to blow my trumpet now, my tag line (yeah, puke, but when in Rome) is 'Humility, Humanity, and Curiosity Always'
More people would do well to adopt this, or even two thirds, it makes me happy to see that you get it (yeah, I am nobody, but I am somebody, and I will share my voice).
I think you might find my Substack interesting - I want to encourage you to take a peek over the New Year break. And if you think it is rubbish, I will value that feedback as much as anything else. Why ...... see my tag line.
Happy New Year ARS and all the best to you and your family!
Stephen Colbert, you, Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, Taylor Riggs, Romaine Bostick, and Caroline Hyde were creeps, invading my front room with evil HDTV spying technology. Colbert especially is obsessed with me and a Democrat Kool-Aid drinker. There is no analogy for what you did to me besides 1984, Fahrenheit 451 and a Walker Texas Ranger episode called Brainchild.
Please read the National Growth Project Growth Project on Substack. It is a citizen’s initiative to reshape the American Economy in an increasingly AI dominated economy !
Andrew, please share my editorial below re. MEMORIAL DAY.
Memorial Day is approaching, and with it comes a solemn obligation: to honor the men and women who have sacrificed for this country, including those who gave what Lincoln called “the last full measure of devotion.” That is, they served their country by sacrificing their lives. For generations, Memorial Day commanded a reverence that transcended politics. It was a day when Americans paused, reflected, and remembered that our freedoms were purchased at an unfathomable cost.
Yet something feels diminished today. The reverence seems thinner, the gratitude less instinctive. Perhaps this erosion has been accelerated by a Commander‑in‑Chief who, according to multiple reliable reports, dismissed those who serve in uniform as “suckers and losers.” For many Americans, that sentiment was highly offensive, yet it was not disqualifying. Trump's comments cut against the very spirit of Memorial Day, a day built on honoring sacrifice, not mocking it.
This Memorial Day, we owe our service members and their families more than perfunctory thanks. We owe them a reaffirmation of national gratitude. We owe them a rejection of any rhetoric that demeans their service. What's more, we owe them a collective insistence that the values they fought and died for, freedom, dignity, responsibility, and shared purpose, still matter and matter greatly.
Andrew - thank you for writing this book and everything you do. As a PhD candidate researching cognitive biases and rational decision making (in the vein of Daniel Kahneman), I can't help but notice that leaders and important voices in all fields in the modern day do not exercise enough humility in their judgement. You are one of the rare exceptions, and that has been clear for many years now. Please don't stop doing what you're doing!
Amen!
This lands directly on my biggest edge and my biggest weakness.
My errors don’t come from lack of judgment. They come from demanding certainty too early. From wanting the present to announce itself as right or wrong before it possibly can.
The past looks obvious only because uncertainty has been edited out of it. In real time, we are always acting with partial information, incomplete maps, and nervous systems that crave resolution.
The work, for me, is not better prediction. It’s staying regulated inside ambiguity long enough for judgment to mature, without rushing to interfere, fix, or force clarity that doesn’t yet exist.
Knowing when judgment applies, and when it doesn’t, may be the real discipline.
Just finished 1929. As with TBTF, it was a great read and a wonderful recount of an important time in history. Your storytelling and research weaved invaluable insights and your synopsis above goes even further in coming to grips with how we can so often repeat the same mistakes due to lack of humility and or judgement. As always your inputs are thoroughly thought provoking.
That’s the concept of presentism: judging people in the past using today’s moral standards, knowledge, and assumptions—rather than what was knowable and normal in their own time. A good historian should be empathetic about context, but still firm that context explains actions; it doesn’t automatically excuse them.
For all we know, making a human being sit at a desk for eight hours a day may someday be viewed as inhumane. Yet my employer bought me a cutting-edge standing desk in 2017. A future historian shouldn’t cast my employer as evil if society later decides desk work is grossly unhealthy for the human body
—because the key question is what people reasonably knew and what options existed at the time.
My two cents. Keep up the great work.
See Division of Market Regulation, Securities & Exchange Commission, The October 1987 Market Break (Feb. 1988) or C. Kindleberger & R. McCauley, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crisis (8th ed, 2023-34). Leverage, leverage, leverage. This story has been told b/4, the only ? today is when & how bad.
Intellectual humility with regards to the past is always difficult.
Loved Too Big to Fail. Looking forward to reading 1929.
The humility component really resonated. I’ve always been cautious of too much certainty...especially when hindsight starts to masquerade as clarity. Congrats on the Book!
Andrew. thank you for sharing your thoughts your very mindful smart honest thoughts
good food for us all
and i have yet to read 1929 hearing from my husband , an insightful brilliant book.
dont stop doing what you're doing! dare i say.
-avy
This resonates deeply. One thing your piece surfaces — almost implicitly — is that judgment is not just a cognitive act, but a situated one: exercised under uncertainty, without resolution, and often before moral consensus exists.
What struck me is how much of our modern discourse assumes judgment should converge — quickly, decisively, cleanly — when in reality, its value often lies in its distribution: where people diverge, hesitate, or disagree in real time, before outcomes are known.
History looks obvious only in hindsight. But from the inside, judgment navigates terrain rather than landing on a point. Flattening that terrain into certainty — or rewarding speed over reflection — risks losing the very signal judgment provides.
Appreciated this reminder that humility isn’t a weakness of judgment, but one of its defining features.
Appreciate your thoughtful transparency and saliently, the wisdom of humility. And all that from doing book tours👏🏽🤣
Lmfao
You are so right. It is a shame that too few people equate confidence and exuberance with an understanding of what is going on. I am going to blow my trumpet now, my tag line (yeah, puke, but when in Rome) is 'Humility, Humanity, and Curiosity Always'
More people would do well to adopt this, or even two thirds, it makes me happy to see that you get it (yeah, I am nobody, but I am somebody, and I will share my voice).
I think you might find my Substack interesting - I want to encourage you to take a peek over the New Year break. And if you think it is rubbish, I will value that feedback as much as anything else. Why ...... see my tag line.
Happy New Year ARS and all the best to you and your family!
https://jamesmaconochie.substack.com/
Great take, thank you!
ARS for the win!
With respect,
Mav
Judgment matters. Knowing its limits matters too.”
As true now as ever. Thanks for the wise thoughts, Andrew.
Stephen Colbert, you, Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, Taylor Riggs, Romaine Bostick, and Caroline Hyde were creeps, invading my front room with evil HDTV spying technology. Colbert especially is obsessed with me and a Democrat Kool-Aid drinker. There is no analogy for what you did to me besides 1984, Fahrenheit 451 and a Walker Texas Ranger episode called Brainchild.
Andrew,
Please read the National Growth Project Growth Project on Substack. It is a citizen’s initiative to reshape the American Economy in an increasingly AI dominated economy !
Andrew, please share my editorial below re. MEMORIAL DAY.
Memorial Day is approaching, and with it comes a solemn obligation: to honor the men and women who have sacrificed for this country, including those who gave what Lincoln called “the last full measure of devotion.” That is, they served their country by sacrificing their lives. For generations, Memorial Day commanded a reverence that transcended politics. It was a day when Americans paused, reflected, and remembered that our freedoms were purchased at an unfathomable cost.
Yet something feels diminished today. The reverence seems thinner, the gratitude less instinctive. Perhaps this erosion has been accelerated by a Commander‑in‑Chief who, according to multiple reliable reports, dismissed those who serve in uniform as “suckers and losers.” For many Americans, that sentiment was highly offensive, yet it was not disqualifying. Trump's comments cut against the very spirit of Memorial Day, a day built on honoring sacrifice, not mocking it.
This Memorial Day, we owe our service members and their families more than perfunctory thanks. We owe them a reaffirmation of national gratitude. We owe them a rejection of any rhetoric that demeans their service. What's more, we owe them a collective insistence that the values they fought and died for, freedom, dignity, responsibility, and shared purpose, still matter and matter greatly.
Ken Derow
801 Yale Ave, #802
Swarthmore, PA, 19081
610-565-3257
kenderow1@yahoo.com